Clara Bicalho
(pronounced bee-KAH-leeoh)
Tinker Postdoctoral Fellow
CLAS, Stanford University
I am an inaugural Tinker Postdoctoral Fellow at the Center for Latin American Studies at Stanford University, and a Research Associate at the Center of the Politics of Development. I received my PhD in political science from the University of California, Berkeley.
In my dissertation work, I explore the determinants of collective land titling reforms in Latin America and its effects on identity, governance, and political participation. I draw on a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods and focus on the empirical case of quilombos (afrodescendent communities) in Brazil.
I am also interested in developing tools for improving causal inference, reproducibility and research transparency. Some software collaborators and I created for that purpose include the DDWizard, a web app for defining and inspecting research designs, and the Metaketa I Meta-Analysis dashboard for real-time sensitivity analysis of research results. See Research tab for related research and R software packages.
Prior to joining UC Berkeley, I was a predoctoral fellow at WZB Berlin and researcher at NYU Center for Technology and Development (CTED). I graduated from NYU Abu Dhabi with a B.A. in Political Science and a B.A. in Arab Crossroads Studies.You can find a copy of my CV here.
Sou pós-doutoranda no Centro de Estudos Latinoamericanos da Universidade de Stanford. Sou doutora em Ciência Política pela University of California, Berkeley e Pesquisadora Associada no Centro de Políticas de Desenvolvimento.
Em minha dissertação, exploro os fatores que influenciam a mobilização e eventual obtenção da titulação coletiva de terras na América Latina e seus efeitos sobre identidade, governança e participação política nas comunidades contempladas. Utilizo uma combinação de métodos quantitativos e qualitativos, com foco no caso empírico dos quilombos no Brasil.
Também tenho interesse em desenvolver ferramentas para melhorar a inferência causal, a reprodutibilidade e a transparência de estudos que envolvem métodos quantitativos. Alguns softwares que criei em colaboração com outros pesquisadores incluem o DDWizard, um aplicativo web para definir e inspecionar desenhos de pesquisa, e o Metaketa I Meta-Analysis dashboard, para análise de sensibilidade de resultados de pesquisa em tempo real. Veja a aba Research para pesquisas relacionadas e pacotes de software R.
Antes de ingressar na University of California, Berkeley, fui pesquisadora no Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung (Centro de Pesquisas Sociais de Berlim) e assistente de pesquisa no Centro de Tecnologia e Desenvolvimento (CTED) na New York University. Sou bacharel em Ciência Política pela New York Univertsity Abu Dhabi.
Acesse meu currículo Lattes aqui.
Research
Peer-Reviewed Publications
2021.““If we move, it moves with us:” Physical Distancing in Africa during COVID-19” (with Melina
Platas and Leah Rosenzweig) World Development 142 (2021) 105379.
[article]
[appendix]
[replication files]
[pre-analysis
plan]
[The Washington Post]
2019. “Voter information campaigns and political accountability: Cumulative findings from a
preregistered meta-analysis of coordinated trials.” (with Thad Dunning et al.) Science
Advances 5.7 (2019): eaaw2612.
[article]
[replication files]
[pre-analysis plan]
2019. “Meta-Analysis” (with Thad Dunning, Anirvan Chowdhury, Guy Grossman, Macartan Humphreys,
Susan D. Hyde, Craig Mcintosh, and Gareth Nellis) in Information, Accountability, and
Cumulative Learning: Lessons from Metaketa I. Thad Dunning, Guy Grossman, Macartan
Humphreys, Susan D. Hyde, and Craig Mcintosh (Eds.). Cambridge University Press.
[book chapter]
[replication files]
[pre-analysis plan]
Working Papers
“Disentitled: Subnational Politics of Communal Land Titling”
Abstract
Despite recent land reform policies targeting the demarcation and protection of indigenous and
afrodescendent communities' collective land rights in Latin America, enormous gaps persist in
formalizing these rights. In this paper, I examine the political dynamics between the state,
landed elites, and communal land claimants to explain why some communities are more successful
than others in obtaining formalization. I focus on claims to collective land made by 1,881
afrodescendent communities in Brazil known as quilombos across 752 municipalities. I compile
municipal-level panel data to investigate determinants of two separate titling outcomes: whether
claims are analyzed by the state and whether titles are granted. The findings reveal that
municipalities with higher capture by local landed elites experience higher rates of national
government’s response to communal claims. However, successful titling is significantly greater
in municipalities where claimants make up a higher proportion of voters. I employ observational
and interview data to explore the mechanisms that lead to these separate outcomes. This paper
underscores the importance of subnational politics and of unpacking titling stages as a means of
understanding when and why formalization of collective land rights is successful.
“The Power of Prognosis: Improving Covariate Balance Tests with Outcome Information”
(with Thad Dunning and Adam Bouyamourn) (R&R at Political Analysis)
[working paper]
Abstract
Scholars frequently use covariate balance tests to test the validity of natural experiments and related designs. Unfortunately, when measured covariates are unrelated to potential outcomes, balance is uninformative about key identification conditions. We show that balance tests can then lead to erroneous conclusions. To build stronger tests, researchers should identify covariates that are jointly predictive of potential outcomes; formally measure and report covariate prognosis; and prioritize the most individually informative variables in tests. Building on prior research on ``prognostic scores," we develop bootstrap balance tests that upweight covariates associated with the outcome. We adapt this approach for regression-discontinuity designs and use simulations to compare weighting methods based on linear regression and more flexible methods, including machine learning. The results show how prognosis weighting can avoid both false negatives and false positives. To illustrate key points, we study empirical examples from a sample of published studies, including an important debate over close elections.
“Ethnic Identification and Ethnic Deception: Experimental Evidence from Uganda, South Africa, and the United States” (with Adam Harris, Daniel Nielson, Lily Medina, Michael Findley, Jeremy Weinstein, James Habyarimana, Macartan Humphreys, Daniel Posner).
Teaching
Graduate Student Instructor (Teaching Assistant) at UC Berkeley
PS231A Quantitative Methods in Political Science (Prof. Dunning, graduate-level), Fall 2021
Outstanding Graduate Student Instructor Award
PS231B Quantitative Methods in Political Science (Prof. Dunning, graduate-level), Spring 2022
Projecting Power (Prof. Wasow, undergraduate-level), Spring 2024
Instructor
Statistical Power in R (in Spanish), EGAP Learning Days Colombia, October 2021
Software
and Applications
Software
[1] 2019. DesignLibrary: Library of Research Designs (with Graeme Blair, Jasper Cooper, Alexander Coppock, Macartan Humphreys, Neal Fultz, and Lily Medina). R package version 0.1.4, URL https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/DesignLibrary/index.html
RShiny Applications
DDWizard (with Sisi
Huang and
Markus Konrad). This web app
allows users to select and customize research designs from a library of templates, simulate
data, and obtain diagnostic statistics such as power, bias, and root mean squared error of
estimates. The app is an interface for using the
DeclareDesign framework
and R packages that does not require knowledge of R and allows easy sharing of designs.
[read more]
[Github
repo]
Metaketa I Meta-Analysis Dashboard. This interface implements the core meta-analyses for the Metaketa I study and allows users to explore sensitivity of results to alternative specifications.